[幻想ノ宴] にとりデッキのスペル投入枚数を考察してみる

ツイート

スーツ３魚雷３工廠３前提。
不利な先手で計算。

T1はスペル０枚マリガンできるので論外。

T2（７ドロー）
にとりボーナス：上記のサポートがあれば、１枚引ける
確率計算：（22～14）
１：85.90%
ボーナス：0.91% 1.38% 2.02% 2.87% 3.99% 5.42% 7.20% 9.38% 11.97%
素：
2.19% 3.06% 4.16% 5.53% 7.20% 9.20% 11.55% 14.25% 17.29%
まとめ：
1.09% 1.61% 2.32% 3.25% 4.44% 5.95% 7.81% 10.06% 12.72%

T3（８ドロー）
ボーナス１枚：30.77%
９ドロー：3.04% 4.45% 6.31% 8.69% 11.65% 15.24% 19.49% 24.39% 29.89%
ボーナス２枚：34.62%
１０ドロー：1.32% 2.10% 3.22% 4.76% 6.83% 9.51% 12.88% 17.01% 21.93%
ボーナス３枚：26.06%
１１ドロー：0.53% 0.92% 1.54% 2.46% 3.80% 5.65% 8.14% 11.40% 15.52%
素：
6.49% 8.78% 11.59% 14.94% 18.84% 23.27% 28.20% 33.56% 39.22%
まとめ：
2.20% 3.24% 4.65% 6.50% 8.87% 11.84% 15.47% 19.81% 24.86%

T4（９ドロー）
ボーナス１：25.97%
7.10% 10.01% 13.65% 18.06% 23.25% 29.17% 35.74% 42.82% 50.18%
ボーナス２：33.50%
3.44% 5.27% 7.75% 10.99% 15.08% 20.07% 25.96% 32.69% 40.11%
ボーナス３：28.66%
1.53% 2.57% 4.12% 6.30% 9.26% 13.14% 18.03% 23.98% 30.95%
ボーナス４：17.79%
0.62% 1.16% 2.04% 3.39% 5.38% 8.18% 11.98% 16.90% 23.03%
ボーナス５：8.26%
0.23% 0.48% 0.93% 1.71% 2.95% 4.84% 7.59% 11.43% 16.53%
素：
13.50% 17.65% 22.47% 27.92% 33.91% 40.35% 47.06% 53.86% 60.54%
まとめ
4.56% 6.65% 9.42% 12.98% 17.44% 22.89% 29.37% 36.86% 45.26%

T5（１０ドロー）
1: 21.40%
13.51% 18.32% 24.00% 30.49% 37.66% 45.31% 53.21% 61.07% 68.60%
2: 31.39%
7.26% 10.67% 15.04% 20.42% 26.78% 34.03% 41.99% 50.40% 58.94%
3: 30.31%
3.58% 5.76% 8.80% 12.86% 18.03% 24.35% 31.75% 40.07% 49.03%
4: 21.11%
1.61% 2.86% 4.79% 7.60% 11.47% 16.57% 22.97% 30.65% 39.44%
5: 10.95%
0.65% 1.31% 2.42% 4.20% 6.88% 10.71% 15.88% 22.53% 30.65%
6: 4.21%
0.24% 0.54% 1.12% 2.16% 3.88% 6.55% 10.46% 15.88% 22.97%
素：5.23%
23.12% 29.16% 35.80% 42.87% 50.18% 57.52% 64.64% 71.33% 77.37%
まとめ
7.89% 11.31% 15.72% 21.23% 27.89% 35.71% 44.60% 54.37% 64.74%

結果（５スペルまで止まる確率）
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tdR4Qj9DdC5FASAyv5imHQA&gid=1

結論：にとりパネェ